Is this a coincidence?

Two headlines got my attention yesterday.  One said:

 Bangko Sentral sees May inflation at 8.8-9.6%

 The other said:

March money supply up 9.6% on year 

Coincidence?

Milton Friedman (the Nobel prize winning economist) is famous for saying that “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. To control inflation, you need to control the money supply.”  To learn more, listen to this podcast of Mr. Friedman.

What’s Winston Up To?

According to ABS-CBN, Winston Garcia bought 10% of Meralco last February.  If it was a market transaction, he must have spent at least P8.50 billion (110 million shares for about P78/share).  As he vied for a management takeover, the price of the stock has plumetted to about P60/share.  He’s lost about P2 billion or 25% of the GSIS investment.  And he didn’t even succeed at taking over the company. 

The attempt (and continuing efforts at take over) negatively affects the stock price because we all know that if he succeeds, a government-run company would probably be less efficient.  We don’t have to look further than NAPOCOR to see that this is almost gospel-truth.  

But let’s assume the best case scenario for Mr. Garcia.  Assume he succeeded in driving down Meralco’s “excessive profits” down. That would also drive the stock price further because stock prices reflect future profits. (Unless, of course, Mr. Garcia can demonstrate that lower prices will not come at the expense of profitabiilty and long-term viability.)

So, if he loses, the stock price goes down.  If he wins, the price goes down.  What can this mean? The only conclusion is that Mr. Garcia bought the shares with the certain outcome that the price would go down. That must have been his intention. 

As a dues-paying member of the GSIS, I’d really like him to explain how this furthers the interests of GSIS members.  If he wants to benefit the general public, that’s fine. But does he have to use GSIS funds and affect my future benefits?  GSIS is not an agency that promotes public welfare.  It’s primary purpose is to promote the welfare of its members.  Somehow, this point is lost on Mr. Garcia.

Even funnier was yesterday’s headline where the government is considering spending P2 billion as  subsidy (read: dole out) to help consumers with their electricity expenses for 10 months.  Well, if Mr. Garcia is so certain that he can permanently reduce the price of electricity by taking over Meralco, he should encourage the government to use the money to buy up more Meralco shares.  Why isn’t he doing that?  

It’s been reported that the money is coming from the P14 billion raised from VAT on electricity.  Well, why not use all that money to buy another 20% or so of Meralco (it’s cheaper now, thanks to Mr. Garcia)?  That should be enough to kick the Lopezes out.

So, what now, Mr. Garcia?  If you were an investment banker, I think you’d have lost your job losing P2 billion in a matter of weeks. But government and politics are peculiar that way.  The bottom line is not always about profits.  The P2 billion loss suffered by GSIS must have benefited somebody in some form or another.  If not, then why did you do it?

UP Law Bar Performance and QPI

Some time in the 90’s (don’t know when but it was after I graduated in ‘93), UP Law implemented a new rule which said that only students with grades higher than 2.75 (cumulative GPA) will graduate.  If at the end of each year, a student’s GPA falls below that rate, then he or she will be dismissed.  For freshmen, the cut-off was slightly lower (2.85, I think) to account for the inevitable culture shock everyone gets in the first year of law school. This whole program was called QPI which stands for Quantitative Point Index (at least that’s what I believe; it doesn’t really matter).  The objective of the QPI was to increase the percentage of UP Law Bar examinees. 

Well, did it work?

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Some UP Law School Stats

Our College Secretary was kind enough to share some information supplied by the Supreme Court on the Bar performance of, among others, the UP College of Law from 1998 to 2007.  I  spent some time with the numbers and they’re quite depressing. I want to clarify that I did not compare our numbers with other law schools (from my glance at the table, that would only make things worse for us).

Over the past ten years an average of only 79.5% of UP graduates who took the bar passed.  What does this mean?  Well, for starters, if you’re new graduate studying for the 2008 bar, I guess you’ll have to worry if you’re part of that 20% who will not take their oath in 2009.  Assuming there is a strong correspondence between your rank in law school and Bar performance (I would venture that the relationship is strong), I think it’s reasonable to say that if you are in the bottom 20% of your class, the odds are against you. And it gets worse for retakers. While first timers pass at an average of 84.7%; only 52.6% of retakers pass.  So, your odds go down dramaticaly if you flunk at least once.  Remember that these numbers are averages — so it’s worse for some and better for others.  

For those aspiring to become the Class of 2012, take a look at everyone at the Freshman Orientation and imagine that even if everyone gets through to graduation, one out of five will probably not pass the bar.  Overall, projecting to the future, that means about 20% of UP Law graduates will never become lawyers.

More tomorrow on QPI, grades, cum laudes and Bar Performance.

Nightiliman

Diliman lived up to its name last night when half of the street lamps on the academic oval were out. I presume the lights they put on the trees overloaded the system causing the circuit breaker to trip.  

I took advantage and went to the "dark side" to take some shots with minimal light. 

UP’s Centennial Kick-Off Activities

UP’s celebrating its centennial with kick off activities tomorrow, Jan 8. I went out last night to take pictures of Quezon Hall. 

Details of the festivities are on the next page:

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Bar Funkers

I've been out of it for a while since working on a small project at home namely, a home recording studio.  It sounds big but it's no more than a few mics, a mixing board, a MacBook and Garage Band software.  For a while there, I was struggling with the mix (it's hard to play while working a mixing board).  Anyway, our first attempt at recording was posted by Bo at his blog. He uploaded 4 jam sessions (just three guys playing off each other).  We're not pros so don't expect that kind of quality but we had a great time and think there might be a song or two (or three) in there somewhere.  

Mural Mural on the Wall

It's hard to take sides on this burning issue between the National Press Club and the Neo Angono Artists Collective.  It seems to me that everyone is on the side of the artists who painted the mural.  Legally, they're correct — as artists and creators, the Intellectual Property Code grants them moral rights over their works such that they can prevent the unauthorized alteration of their work "which would be prejudicial to (their) honor or reputation."  Moral rights are retained even though the artist has given up his copyright (although he can waive his moral rights, too).  Note that in the case of commissioned works like the NPC Mural, the copyright is retained by the artist (in the absence of a contrary agreement).  So, theoretically, the Neo Angono Collective can sue for copyright infringement, too, on the theory that the work is an unauthorized transformation of the work.

Well and good.  

But it occurred to me that the National Press Club might have a defense and so I thought one up.  It's based on information passed on to me by an NPC officer.  Apparently, the press didn't carry the NPC's side of the story (irony of ironies, isn't it?).  Anyway, my legal defense for them is based on the narration of facts that was relayed to me.  It seems that the NPC required the Artists to submit thumbnails of the mural and the NPC Board approved every aspect of the work.  However, what was delivered deviated from the approved thumbnails.  These were the items that were subsequently changed.  In short, the Artists made insertions into the work that their client (the NPC) did not approve.  You could say that the NPC was duped and later, outsmarted in the media storm that followed, because the victim was turned into a bad guy.

So, on the assumption that the Artists surreptitiously inserted unacceptable items into the mural, the NPC can defend itself on the ground that the NPC is merely exercising its Constitutionally protected right to free speech when it altered the mural.  Free speech?   Well, I've never been to the NPC nor have I viewed the mural but I imagine that if I see the mural, I would assume that the work represents the views of the NPC.  This is why the NPC board approved every aspect of the work — to ensure that their speech was accurately depicted in the work.  However, the Artists inserted their own speech into the work and now insist that their speech be retained in the work citing as their legal basis, copyright law. 
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An Open Letter to Teddy Te

What follows is a letter addressed to Prof. Teddy Te in response to his post entitled "Ingratitude. In Gratitude."  I would have left this matter alone but he did name me personally and I feel the need to respond. I think this is not the best way to debate this issue but Teddy chose the venue and made the initial volley.  There is a need to clear the air.

Although I do not adopt all of the statements below (I didn't sign the letter), I believe that Teddy has been misrepresenting (or maybe he misunderstands) the facts.  For context, read his post first, then the letter below.

There's another document and some background to this (not to mention an earlier post by Teddy, too).  Maybe I'll get into that later.  But for now, read on. 

 — ◊ ◊ ◊ —

                                               27 November 2007

Dear Teddy,

OUR STATEMENT STOOD ON THE PRINCIPLE that the Search Process must not be
subverted. Instead of answering us on the level of principle, you attacked us as
persons, labeled us as ingrates, and viewed it all as the politics of patronage.
You have committed two basic mistakes.

FIRST, YOU GOT THE FACTS WRONG. You say that we “demand[ed] that Dean
Carlota not be allowed any extension of his term beyond his birthday.”
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Guess Who’s Back? . . . Again . . .

Ok. So, here's another feeble attempt at blogging.

Last Saturday,  we had the pleasure of hosting a mini iBlog about Blogging and the 2010 Elections.  It was hosted by the UP Law Internet and Society Program but put together by Janette Toral.   It was an informative session and I'm proud to say that all of the participants were there because they were seriously interested in blogging.  After all, why spend a Saturday morning at the UP College of Law in Diliman? 

Anyways, as with many of Janette's events, we usually open up with passing the mike around and introducing yourself (and your blog).  When it came to me, I had to admit that although I have a blog, I haven't posted in some time (more like a year).  The usual excuse is — I don't have the time.  The truth is, I do.  Except that I've been doing other things with my time — maybe I'll blog about it sometime. 

But for now, I've resolved to blog (once in a while or when I have something to say — and I always do).  As usual, I don't vouch for the truth or accuracy of the facts only the sincerity of my opinions (sometimes, facts get in the way or as Stephen Colbert would likely say, "Relying on facts to form an opinion or to promote a course of action is a cop-out."  

On that note,  here I go . . . again. 

GMA: Protector of the Constitution

In the haste to remove GMA, we seem to have overlooked one of her virtues and perhaps, her legacy as President.  She has called herself the President of a “strong republic,” that is, one where democratice processes work, where institutions make crucial decisions free from the stranglehold of vested interests, where the law and the Constitution reign supreme.  We all know, she won’t get us there  and it’s unlikely our fledgling state will reach that stage within my lifetime.

But we should remember that, if anything, she has addressed the political crisis by relying and holding fast to the principles embodied in the Constitution.  Her opponents, in their desperation, however, have chosen other means.  So, in a very real sense, GMA is defending the Constitution and the democratic processes embodied therein.
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What kind of threat is that?

One could say “only in the Philippines.”

Inq7 reports that various members of the Arroyo administration have issued verbal warnings to members of Congress that if they seek the impeachment of the President, the Administration will not support them in next year’s elections.  

 The question in my mind is,  “whi is that a threat worth making?” (in this case by no less than the Presidential Chief of Staff and the Presidential political adviser).  In a mature democracy, the support of a President facing impeachment charges would be worth nothing.  I haven’t looked at the recent polls but I’ll bet a large percentage of voters believe she should be impeached.  If that were so, then her support in the 2007 elections should have no political capital.  If I were a politician, I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near her.  After all, proximity is implied complicity.

But we must remind ourselves that we are in the Philippines — where the political system exists only in form, not in substance.  Sometimes I think we should tear down that xenotaph in Quezon Circle for the idiot who desired a government run like hell by Filipinos.  Half a century later and his dream is still a reality. And in our political system Presidential support isn’t about the popularity of the President (and her vote-getting skills), it pertains to something else altogether.  (Let’s not discuss the obvious, shall we?)  Suffice it to say that there’s more than one way to get votes and when it comes to politics, Filipinos are avid free-market proponents (laissez faire at its best). 

That’s why the threat of withdrawing Presidential support is so powerful.  It resonates with politicians who need such support to remain in the game.  That the threat is worth making in such a public way implies that moral weakness can be overcome by economic strength.  In a free market, that works because economic efficiency is far more virtuous than correctness.  In a political system, however, I’m not too sure. 

Free Expression in Asian Cyberspace

I’m spending the rest of the week at the “Free Expression in Asian Cyberspace” conference organized by the Southeast Asian Press Alliance (SEAPA) and the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ).  Delegates from at least 15 countries in the region are speaking about a range of issues affecting press freedom across Asian nations and the Internet.  For a good blow-by-blow coverage, visit the PCIJ blog here, here, here, here, here, here, and here) or the Conference Blog. 

Presenters from different countries spoke of government-sanctioned restrictions on their press freedom ranging from harrasment to arrests to disappearances.  It makes me realize just how much we take for granted our press freedom here (despite the government’s best efforts).  But for some of the participants, the dialogue at the conference had some more ominous consequences.  I understand that some delegates were unable to attend because they were detained at the airport long enough to miss their flights.  One has apparently been arrested.  Yet another (a presenter here) pleaded this morning for the bloggers present to take down erroneous information identifying the delegate with an underground press freedom organization — this in the wake of an AP article that just hit the wires this morning.  As the delegate stood up and addressed the bloggers, it dawned on me that our freedoms can cause real harm to other people in places where repression is the norm.  It was a sobering thought and I think a major lesson we all learned in this conference.
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iBlog2

 
 iBlog2 is now history.  We had more speakers (5 times more than that original 5 in iBlog), 2 separate rooms, and surprisingly, more attendees (a total of more than 200 sign-ups) than the first Philippine Blogging Summit.  The day was kicked off by Rebecca Mackinnon’s inspiring keynote and then the six tracks on everything we thought bloggers would be interested in (i.e., Professional Blogging, Media, Podcasting, Legal Issues, Arts and Writing).  Given that we scheduled this on a weekday, we were blown away by the number of people who trekked out to the UP College of Law for this event.

I spent the day taking pictures and basically running around like a headless chicken. My overall impression is that blogging is coming into its own in the Philippines.  We’re seeing more newbies, more dedicated bloggers, and deeper concerns about where all of this is headed.  I can assure you, the folks at the UP Law Internet & Society Program will be here to do its part.  We hope to mount iBlog3 either next year or if we can hack it, as early as the end of the year.  (more…)

iBlog 2 Begins

 
In his opening remarks at iBlog2, UP Law Dean Salvador Carlota, observed that as bloggers come together in this second summit, majority of Filipinos are probably ignorant of the technology that supports blogging.  “These things are not yet in their consciousness.”  Internet access being what it is, blogging is still in its infancy in these islands but a growing number of users are blogging and some, blogging seriously. 

Glancing at the crowd at the Sta. Ana Room at the UP College of Law, we have a pretty good turnout for a weekday event.  I’m told that 120 people had signed up by 9:30 a.m.  Congratulations go out to the hard working folks at the UP Internet and Society Program!

Here we go. 

What was the No. 1 Song when you were born?

To find out, go here.  Mine turned out to be “Honey” by Bobby Goldsboro - a song I would not know were it not for the fact that my dad used to play it over and over after my mom passed away in 1976.  I ended up memorizing the lyrics and had no idea the song had any other connection to me. 

iBlog 2

Go to iBlog 2 , the Philippines’ 2nd Blogging Summit. Attendance is FREE. Register now to save your seat!

EFF Takes Down Legal Guide for Bloggers

I just got this in an email from EFF:

EFF Takes Down Legal Guide for Bloggers

Opens Online Home for Wayward MySpace Profiles

San Francisco - You might have noticed that EFF has removed its Student Bloggers’ Legal FAQ. This was in response to a cease-and-desist notice we received for “encouraging kids to talk back to their parents and teachers.” This incident has opened our eyes to a new plague on the Internet — the lost and wandering MySpace profiles of thousands of young people across our nation.

“These profiles are an unfiltered view of young people’s thoughts and dreams, and that’s just scary,” said Bea Kweiter, a volunteer at the online home. “If this freewheeling expression is allowed to continue, there’s no way the people associated with it will ever get a job in the real world. Well, unless some boss somewhere has a MySpace profile of her own. But that would never happen.”

The home offers a safe place for profiles to learn how to self-censor. There is also a detox center for exclamation-point overload.

 Read the whole press release at: http://www.eff.org/cgi/tiny?urlID=556

Health Warning: Dihydrogen Monoxide (DMHO)

You should be aware of the health risks associated with DMHO.  You’d be surprised at the number of ordinary household items that contain DMHO.  For more info, go to the DMHO Research Division website.  You should also read their FAQ. 

Be careful. DMHO may get you. 

Ver Pena resigns as CICT Chair

I am personally shocked that Ver Pena has stepped down as CICT Chair (see INQ7 story).  Taking stock at what has been achieved in the last 5 years, I guess you can say it centers around organizing the CICT and managing the first e-government fund. Good luck on your future endeavors, Chairman Pena!

I wonder who’ll take his place.  Time to get on the vine for the latest scuttlebutt.